Bassa Mawem, who won Speed in great style and secured a position in the final, seemed to have torn his left biceps at the start of the Lead qualification. He let go and did not untie but instead tried to just hold his bicep in place. Most probably he will not take part in the final. As he was ranked as #1 in Speed, the starting order was that he was going to meet the slowest finalists from the qualification, i.e. Adam Ondra. In practice, this would mean, that Ondra automatically will be qualified to the Speed semi.

On their half, of the Speed starting list, are also Colin Duffy and Alberto Gines Lopez, battling for a run against Ondra in the semi. In other words, whoever wins that quarterfinal is almost secured making the Speed finals as Ondra is about one second slower.

The further impact of Bassa's injury is that whoever wins the predicted semi, Tomoa Narasaki against Mickael Mawev, will most probably also win the final. We should not forget that Nathaniel Coleman who faces Mickael in the quarter-final looked like he could make close to six seconds which will set some pressure on Michael to push at his very best.

Due to the multiplication format, the chances for Jakob Schubert taking the gold has dropped significantly, due to Bassa's very unfortunate injury. Most probably, he will now end as #7 and all the others will be moved one step higher in the ranking, with a much greater impact. In theory, Bassa might consider trying to do at least the quarterfinal against Adam Ondra, as he might win such a race even injured.


It should be mentioned that I am not 100 % sure about the thoughts above. It has been said in the media that if Bassa retires, Alex Megos could possibly take his position. That would be very strange as then how would Bassa be ranked overall? Another option could be that the Speed starting order could be redone and Bassa is ranked as #8, meaning Michael would get the free ticket to the semi.

1. Tomoa Narasaki JPN 1 * 1 * 4 = 4
2. Adam Ondra CZE 4 * 3 * 1 = 12
3. Colin Duffy USA 2 * 4 * 3 = 24
4. Michael Mawem FRA 3 * 2 * 6 = 36
5. Jakob Schubert AUT 7 * 5 * 2 = 70
6. Alberto Gines Lopez 5 * 7 * 5 = 175
7. Nathaniel Coleman 6 * 6 * 7 = 252
8. Bassa Mawem FRA DNS

It might feel strange that the qualification winner Michael Mawem is just predicted to be #4. The reason for this is simply that it has been predicted that he will lose against Narasaki in the Speed semifinal. If he instead wins that race and then also wins the final, and all other predictions remain the same, he will be runner up after Narasaki overall. In the same way, if Alberto Gines Lopez wins against Colin Duffy in their Speed quarterfinal, and all other predictions remain the same, Alberto will get the Olympic bronze and Colin drops to #5.

The screenshot is from Olympics.com. It is noteworthy to mention that if Janja had dropped one hold earlier, Viktoriia Meshkova had knocked out Anouck Jaubert from the final.

As sensationally two female Speed specialists (Aleksandra Miroslaw and Anouck Jaubert) made it to the final, one of them could get a bronze. Furthermore, Janja Garnbret, 7th-best in the Speed quali among the finalists, will run against Jaubert, #2 in the quali, in the 1/4-final meaning, Garnbret probably finishes #5 in Speed. Prior to the Olympics, it was expected that Janja would be #2 in Speed in the final making it almost impossible for the other to reach her.

If Chaehyon Seo wins Lead and Garnbret again is #4, Seo will get the gold being #3 in Bouldering even if Garnbret wins in a superior style. The prediction is still that Garnbret gets the gold and that there will be no Speed specialists, but below is also an example of a possible sensational outcome.

1. Chaehyon Seo 8 * 3 * 1 = 24
2. Janja Garnbret 7 * 1 * 4 = 28
3. Anouck Jaubert 1 * 7 * 7 = 49

Once again great route setting and a great show but no Top. The big sensation was that Janja Garnbret (SLO) was only #4 and ten moves behind 17-year-old Chaehyon Seo (KOR). On the other hand, in 2019 Seo did win over Garnbret in four World Cups out of six. Runner-up was Jessica Pilz (AUT), who injured a finger badly in May, followed by Akiyo Noguchi (JPN). Interesting was also that Speed specialist Anouck Jaubert (FRA) followed up her great Bouldering performance by being #15. This means that two Speed specialists have qualified for the final. The biggest setback was Laura Rogora (ITA) being #10 after having struggled doing practically all, somewhat reachy moves, right from the start. (c) Jon Glassberg/Louder than 11

1 Seo Chaehyun (KOR) 40+
2 Pilz Jessica (AUT)33+
3 Nonaka Miho (JPN) 30+
4 Garnbret Janja (SLO) 30
5 Meshkova Viktoriia (RUS) 29+
6 Noguchi Akiyo (JPN) 27+
7 Krampl Mia (SLO) 26+ (3:16)
8 Raboutou Brooke (USA) 26+ (3:40)
9 Chanourdie Julia (FRA) 25+
10 Rogora Laura (ITA) 25
11 Condie Kyra (USA) 22+
12 Yip Alannah (CAN) 21+ (2:14)
13 Coxsey Shauna (GBR) 21+ (2:23)
14 Klingler Petra (SUI) 16+ (1:49)
15 Jaubert Anouck (FRA) 16+ (2:14)
16 Mackenzie Oceania (AUS) 15+
17 Kaplina Iuliia (RUS) 14+
18 SONG YiLing (CHN) 13+
19 Miroslaw Aleksandra (POL) 12
20 Sterkenburg Erin (RSA) 20 7+

Here is the results after 2/3 stages. All the favourites have set themselves in a good position in order to advance to the final. For the male, 550 points were needed to make it to the Top-8. We have added a speculation Lead score for each woman in order to get as close to 500 points as possible. The biggest sensation is that there are actually chances to have two female Speed specialists into the final, as Anouck Jaubert should get below 500 points. However, it is very hard to predict which score is needed to make the final. It just might be closer to 400. On the picture by Jon Glassberg/Louder than 11 is Viktoriia Meshkova who probably needs to be Top-5 in order to make the final.

1 Garnbret Janja (SLO) 14 * 1 = 14
2 Miroslaw Aleksandra (POL) 20 * 1 = 20
3 Raboutou Brooke (USA) 12 * 2 = 24
4 Jaubert Anouck (FRA) 2 *13 = 26 ( * 19 speculated in Lead = 494)
5 Noguchi Akiyo (JPN) 9 * 3 = 27 ( * 19 = 513)
6 Nonaka Miho (JPN) 4 * 8 = 32 ( * 16 = 512)
7 SONG YiLing (CHN) 3 * 19 = 57 ( * 9 = 513)
8 Coxsey Shauna (GBR) 16 * 4 = 64 ( * 7 = 448
9 Condie Kyra (USA) 7 * 11 = 77 ( * 6 = 462)
10 Seo Chaehyun (KOR) 17 * 5 = 85 ( * 6 = 510)
11 Kaplina Iuliia (RUS) 5 * 18 = 90 ( * 5 = 450)
12 Meshkova Viktoriia (RUS) 15 * 5 = 90 ( * 5 = 450)
13 Yip Alannah (CAN) 6 * 16 = 96 ( * 5 = 480)
14 Pilz Jessica (AUT) 11 * 9 = 99 ( * 5 = 499)
15 Klingler Petra (SUI) 10 * 10 = 100 ( * 5 = 500)
16 Chanourdie Julia (FRA) 8 * 15 = 120 ( * 4 = 480)
17 Rogora Laura (ITA) 19 * 7 = 133 ( * 3 = 399)
18 Mackenzie Oceania (AUS) 13 * 12 = 156 ( *3 = 468)
19 Krampl Mia (SLO) 18 * 14 = 252 ( *2 = 504)
20 Sterkenburg Erin (RSA) 20 * 17 = 340 ( * 1 = 340)

Janja Garnbret (SLO), who was #14 in Speed, came back in the fantastic style she is famous for by flashing all the four great dynamic boulders. All the favourites made good performances. Ranked second and third were Brooke Raboutou (USA) and Akiyo Noguchi (JPN). The only medal favourite not really coming up to her normal standard was Miho Nonaka being #8. Just ahead was Laura Rogora, who saved her day by getting one boulder in her first try just after having gotten only the zone on the first two boulders. The biggest sensation was that Speed specialist Anouck Jaubert #13 with one top.

1 Garnbret Janja (SLO) 4T4z 4 4
2 Raboutou Brooke (USA) 3T4z 4 4
3 Noguchi Akiyo (JPN) 3T4z 5 4
4 Coxsey Shauna (GBR) 2T4z 3 4
5 Seo Chaehyun (KOR) 2T4z 5 5
6 Meshkova Viktoriia (RUS) 2T4z 8 5
7 Rogora Laura (ITA) 1T4z 1 5
8 Nonaka Miho (JPN) 1T3z 2 3
9 Pilz Jessica (AUT) 1T3z 3 5
10 Klingler Petra (SUI) 1T3z 3 8
11 Condie Kyra (USA) 1T3z 4 5
12 Mackenzie Oceania (AUS) 1T2z 3 2
13 Jaubert Anouck (FRA) 1T1z 4 1
14 Krampl Mia (SLO) 0T4z 0 5
15 Chanourdie Julia (FRA) 0T3z 0 9
16 Yip Alannah (CAN) 0T2z 0 2
17 Sterkenburg Erin (RSA) 0T1z 0 1
18 Kaplina Iuliia (RUS) 0T1z 0 2
19 SONG YiLing (CHN) 0T1z 0 5
20 Miroslaw Aleksandra (POL)

Lots of emotions, personal bests and big smiles in the female Speed qualification. Aleksandra Miroslaw (POL) set two PB's and won the stage. She set the Olympic Record with a time of 6.97, just 0.01 seconds away from the world record. This means that the Pole has very excellent chances of qualifying for the final. The biggest frustration we saw from the world record holder Iuliia Kaplina slipping on the very last foothold when it looked like she was going to set a new world record. Miho Nonaka looked to be in superb speed shape, setting a great PB with 7.55. The big favourite to win the gold, Janja Garnbret, with a PB of 7.91, slipped in both races and got 9.41 but it actually did not look like she is in supershape. Alannah Yip's 7.99 should also be mentioned and she just might be an outsider getting into the final although she has not done any World Cups in 2021.

1 Miroslaw Aleksandra (POL) 6.97 (OR)
2 Jaubert Anouck (FRA) 7.12
3 SONG YiLing (CHN) 7.46
4 Nonaka Miho (JPN) 7.55
5 Kaplina Iuliia (RUS) 7.65
6 Yip Alannah (CAN) 7.99
7 Condie Kyra (USA) 8.08
8 Chanourdie Julia (FRA) 8.17
9 Noguchi Akiyo (JPN) 8.23
10 Klingler Petra (SUI) 8.42
11 Pilz Jessica (AUT) 8.51
12 Raboutou Brooke (USA) 8.67
13 Mackenzie Oceania (AUS) 8.83
14 Garnbret Janja (SLO) 9.44
15 Meshkova Viktoriia (RUS) 9.54
16 Coxsey Shauna (GBR) 9.65
17 Seo Chaehyun (KOR) 10.01
18 Krampl Mia (SLO) 10.43
19 Rogora Laura (ITA) 10.50
20 Sterkenburg Erin (RSA) 11.10

1. Janja Garnbret 6 * 1 * 2 = 12
2. Miho Nonaka 5 * 2 * 7 = 70
3. Chaehyon Seo 15 * 5 * 1 = 75
4. Brooke Raboutou 8 * 8 * 4 = 256
5. Laura Rogora 16 * 6 * 3 = 288
6. Akiyo Noguchi 13 * 3 * 8 = 312
7. Iuliia Kaplina 1 * 19 * 19 = 361
8. Viktoriia Meshkova 10 * 7 * 6 = 420

Not into the final
9. Petra Klingler 7 * 4 * 17 = 476
10. Mia Krampl 14 * 9 * 5 = 630

Here are some further detailed comments, who will make finals.

Eric Hörst has published a video of Bassa Maẃem's catastrophic muscle/tendon failure in his left biceps, on his Insta, Training for Climbing. Eric says that "this bicep tear is likely the result of excessive speed/power training making the tendon too stiff (i.e. stiffer than the bicep is strong)."

Alexey Rubtsov had a similar injury for two years and shares some of his knowledge. "I tore my biceps in competition and next week I wait for surgery. It is not possible to do anything. In a good scenario, it is 2-4 months of rehabilitation and a year before the start of serious training. I returned to strength training in June of this year, i.e. two years after the injury. I will never repeat most of the strength training.

I tore my biceps because I was training wrong. I started to prepare for the Olympics, ran speed, climbed difficulty and did not reduce the amount of bouldering. I was always overtrained, did not do rehabilitation exercises for the shoulders, only trained strength. And at one point my strength crippled me."

Bassa has confirmed that he has suffered a complete rupture of his lower biceps tendon meaning he will not compete in the final.