Who will make the female final in Tokyo?


Tuesday, 27 July

Janja Garnbret is the big favourite to win in Tokyo. Most probably she will win in both Lead and Boulder and also be the best non-Speed specialist in Speed. The contenders for the silver and bronze are Miho Nonaka, Akiyo Noguchi, Brooke Raboutou, Laura Rogora and Chaehyun Seo. Including also one Speed specialist making the final Top-8, there is just one spot left for the final. Here are the remaining 14 athletes, divided into three groups and their predicted chances of making it to the final.

15 % chance making final
Viktoriia Meshkova: Took a sensational win and qualified in the Moscow Euro Championship. #4 in Lead in Innsbruck and a very good Speed PB at 8.63. (c) Vladek Zumr
Petra Klingler: The Boulder World Champion in 2016 who has been #11 as her best in 2021 out of seven WCs.
Julia Chanourdie: Out of eight World Cups in 2021, her best result was #6 in Chamonix, where most of the Olympians did not participate.

10 % (or lower*) chance making final
Mia Krampl: #2 in the Lead World Championship in 2019 but she has had a hard time coming up to that level in 2021.
Kyra Condie: Out of eight World Cups in 2021, her best result was #8. Very good Speed climber with 8.05 as her PB.
Jessica Pilz: Ruptured her A4 pulley 23/5 being #5 in Salt Lake City.
Shauna Coxsey: The Boulder World Cup winner 2016 and 2017 was #31 in her only WC appearance in 2021. She did not participate in the 2021 British nationals.
Alannah Yip: Has not done any World Cups in 2021.
Oceania Mackenzie: Has not done and World Cups in 2021.
Erin Sterkenburg *1%: Has done three World Cups in 2021 but did not make semi in any.

Speed specialists
Alexandra Miroslaw, YiLing Song, Anouck Jaubert and Iuliia Kaplina.

It should be mentioned that there are chances that there will be two female Speed specialists making the final as it is expected that the six favourites will occupy most of the Top-6 results in Lead and Boulder. Furthermore, it might be that the multiplied score of the runner-up in Speed gets a score of 2 * 16 * 19 = 608m, finishing #8 in the qualification. The highest-ranked, excluding the 6 favourites and the two best in Speed, could score 5 * 9 * 14 = 630, being #9 in the qualification.

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