Here is a print screen from one betting company. How they have set up the odds is unclear, and here are some comments:

The chances for a Speed specialist winning must be at least 1:999. Shauna Coxey and Jessica Pilz are a long way from being favourite #3 and #4 in my book. Instead, Nonaka, Rogora, Raboutou and Seo should all be top 6 in the rankings. #7 in my rankings is Meshkova. The worst odds of all females has been given to Sterkenburg who should have at least 1:99999.

Jernej Kruder reports on Insta that he is in Tokyo as a reserv athlete. “Chances to compete are equal to none, due to a million things that should turn in my good.”

Kruder tells 8a that he knows there are more reserves but not how the selection works. “My team is isolated in a special hotel. We also have a special process to train in some gyms alone.

There is no official IFSC info in regards how the reserves were selected but Kruder was the highest ranked in the Combined World Champion that did not make it. The second highest ranked male was Hanwool Kim from Korea.

Among the female, Speed specialist Di Niu from China was in Kruder’s position in 2019 followed by YueTong Zhang also from China, not counting Jenya Kazbekova who is recovering from an injury. Kazbekova has confirmed to 8a that she would have been a reserve.

In practice, the reserves will only participate if the Olympians fails a Covid test or get injured prior to the registration. If Niu get a spot and there will be five female Speed specialists, the chance/risk for any of the getting a medal is getting closer to 50 %, from a mathematical point of view.

Cameron Hörst, who did his first 9a+ in May, has done his fourth 9a, Mutation at Wild Iris. It was set up by BJ Tilden in 2016 and has only been repeated by Jonathan Siegrist before. (c) Eric Hörst

"YEAHHHH, that's right a 100 foot, 80 move HARD route a Wild iris. This place provides!! Breakdown is hard 8c to a good rest. Rest holds are good but your core is still getting worked and you're totally on your arms. Then you have really powerful and resistant 8b+ to the top! The last hard move is so intense, blind deadpoint to an easy to miss three-finger pocket. Sheesh that move gave me grief. Route is logistically contrived, but if those factors could be removed "mutation" would be famous!"

Janja Garnbret is the big favourite to win in Tokyo. Most probably she will win in both Lead and Boulder and also be the best non-Speed specialist in Speed. The contenders for the silver and bronze are Miho Nonaka, Akiyo Noguchi, Brooke Raboutou, Laura Rogora and Chaehyun Seo. Including also one Speed specialist making the final Top-8, there is just one spot left for the final. Here are the remaining 14 athletes, divided into three groups and their predicted chances of making it to the final.

15 % chance making final
Viktoriia Meshkova: Took a sensational win and qualified in the Moscow Euro Championship. #4 in Lead in Innsbruck and a very good Speed PB at 8.63. (c) Vladek Zumr
Petra Klingler: The Boulder World Champion in 2016 who has been #11 as her best in 2021 out of seven WCs.
Julia Chanourdie: Out of eight World Cups in 2021, her best result was #6 in Chamonix, where most of the Olympians did not participate.

10 % (or lower*) chance making final
Mia Krampl: #2 in the Lead World Championship in 2019 but she has had a hard time coming up to that level in 2021.
Kyra Condie: Out of eight World Cups in 2021, her best result was #8. Very good Speed climber with 8.05 as her PB.
Jessica Pilz: Ruptured her A4 pulley 23/5 being #5 in Salt Lake City.
Shauna Coxsey: The Boulder World Cup winner 2016 and 2017 was #31 in her only WC appearance in 2021. She did not participate in the 2021 British nationals.
Alannah Yip: Has not done any World Cups in 2021.
Oceania Mackenzie: Has not done and World Cups in 2021.
Erin Sterkenburg *1%: Has done three World Cups in 2021 but did not make semi in any.

Speed specialists
Alexandra Miroslaw, YiLing Song, Anouck Jaubert and Iuliia Kaplina.

It should be mentioned that there are chances that there will be two female Speed specialists making the final as it is expected that the six favourites will occupy most of the Top-6 results in Lead and Boulder. Furthermore, it might be that the multiplied score of the runner-up in Speed gets a score of 2 * 16 * 19 = 608m, finishing #8 in the qualification. The highest-ranked, excluding the 6 favourites and the two best in Speed, could score 5 * 9 * 14 = 630, being #9 in the qualification.

Filip Schenk, who has won eleven Youth Cups/Championships, has done Kein Licht Kein Schatten 9a (8c+) in Ötztal on his second session. Being 17-years-old, in 2017, he was #15 in the Euro Lead Championship. (c) Patrick Tirler

"The moves are really unique, especially the last hard boulder where you have to match two underclings and then jump to a good hole in the middle of this steep wall! These are moves you don't find so often on the rock, you are more used to them from the gyms."

What is next?
I will go back next month to the gym to train for the World Championships in September. After that I will try to climb as much as possible on rock again, mainly in Arco where I still have some cool projects and then after I would love to go for a trip to Spain!

Dani Andrada, the most dedicated hardcore bolter in the world in the last 25 years, has placed 170 bolts in the last three weeks. Most of them he drilled on five 130 - 222 meter long multi-pitches graded 7c to 8b in La Hermida in the north of Spain. "La Machina" says all of them are five stars and that some are vertical and others are more overhanging, including also tufas.

Tim Reuser, #11 in the Lead World Championship 2019, has been on a four days trip to Magic Woods where he did six boulders 8A+ and harder. Most impressive was his one-hour ascent of Power of Now giving it a personal 8B+ grade, saying it was his style.

What is your style?
I’m good in big moves and keeping a lot of tension on my feet in an overhang. When the holds are relatively good I can make very far dynamic moves. When I saw the footage of power of now I knew this boulder would suit me very well.

What is your next plan?
I really want to do an 8C+ one day. Probably the lines I have the most chance on are Ephyra in Chironico or The big Island assis in Fontainebleau. Maybe I will try them at the end of the year.

Tomoa Narasaki, Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert and Alex Megos are the big favourites to make it to the Top-8 finals. They will also most probably get all the podiums. We might add one Speed specialist, and then there are just three spots left to the final.

Basically, none of the other 16 male Olympians have consistently been successful in the World Cup in 2021, although Alberto Gines Lopez, Colin Duffy and Nathaniel have had a few good results. Here are the 20 male Olympians categorized into five groups based on their chances of making the final with a focus on the non-favourites.

90% chance making final
Tomoa Narasaki, Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert and Alex Megos

30% chance making finals
Alberto Gines Lopez: Having done twice as many IFSC comps as the runner-up of the Olympians, he has chosen a different preparation approach. The results have not been consistent but with two weeks of rest and also being one of the best Speed climbers, 6.28 gives him good chances.
Kai Harada: The Boulder World Champion in 2018, who made several Lead finals in 2019, has had #13 as his best results out of four WC events in 2021. The reason for the poor results in 2021 is unknown but with 6.34 as Speed PB and also being at his home turf, he could make final.
Colin Duffy: The 17-year-old was #3 in Lead in Villars and #9 in Bouldering in Innsbruck. PB in Speed is 6.75.
Nathaniel Coleman: Bouldering specialist with 5 - 21 - 10 - 6 as his promising WC bouldering results in 2021.

20% chance making final
Mickael Mawem: The Frenchman has only done Boulder and Speed World Cups in 2021 and his best results are #10 respectively #11.
Aleksei Rubtsov: Bouldering World Champion in 2009 after having trained climbing for only four years qualified to Tokyo by winning the Euro Championship in Moscow in 2020. He has deliberately not done any Speed IFSC comps in 2021 and needs probably to be at least Top-4 in Bouldering to make finals.
Jongwon Chon: He won the Bouldering World Cup in 2015 and 2017 but has struggled since. This year he was #8 and #43 in Innsbruck.

15% (or lower*) chance making final
Jan Hojer: The German has competed in six World Cups in 2021 and twice he has been #19. His PB in Speed is 6.46.
Sean McColl: The Canadian has been one of the best competitors during the last ten years but he was #19 and #33 in Salt Lake City and his Speed PB is 6.99.
Yufei Pan: He has not done any IFSC comps since 2019 when he qualified for the Olympics in Toulouse. Previously, the Chinese has only once made it to any WC finals.
Michael Piccolruaz: Training partner to Jakob Schubert who has was #12 in Salt Lake City but all the other six WC events #31 and below.
Tom O'Halloran 2%*: The Australian representative who has not done any IFSC events since 2019 when he was #32 in the Lead World Championship.
Christoffer Gosser 1%*: The South African representative with a 6.83 PB in Speed.

Speed specialists
Bassa Mawem, Ludovico Fossali and Rishat Khaibullin, out of which Rishat is the only decent climber also in Lead and in Boulder. In practice, the Speed winner will make it to the finals but they are also challenged by Tomoa Narasaki. In theory, there could be two Speed specialists in the finals but then the runner-up (Rishat) needs to be #2 in Speed and beat five guys in Lead and in Boulder.

From a mathematical point of view, you most probably need a maximal score of around 450 to make it to the final. Here are some examples of that;
8 * 7 * 8 = 448
4 * 8 * 14 = 448
3 * 9 * 17 = 459
2 * 14 * 16 = 448

Vojta Trojan has done his fourth 9a, Pornographie in Ceuse, after projecting it for ten days. (c) Adria Martinez

“It's a pretty short power endurance climb with two hard sections separated with kneebar rest. It's always challenging to climb something hard in Ceüse and I'm super happy to lead this battle to a successful end.”

Almost 2 000 8a members have made their Top-5 prediction. Janja Garnbret is the big favorite to win and among the male, Adam Ondra did get most votes followed by Tomoa Narasaki.

Each answer and rank you predicted correctly will earn you 100 points and one ticket toward the raffle. If you are among the participants with the most points, you will be entered into the raffle for the grand prize.