Who will make the male final in Tokyo

Tomoa Narasaki, Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert and Alex Megos are the big favourites to make it to the Top-8 finals. They will also most probably get all the podiums. We might add one Speed specialist, and then there are just three spots left to the final.

Basically, none of the other 16 male Olympians have consistently been successful in the World Cup in 2021, although Alberto Gines Lopez, Colin Duffy and Nathaniel have had a few good results. Here are the 20 male Olympians categorized into five groups based on their chances of making the final with a focus on the non-favourites.

90% chance making final
Tomoa Narasaki, Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert and Alex Megos

30% chance making finals
Alberto Gines Lopez: Having done twice as many IFSC comps as the runner-up of the Olympians, he has chosen a different preparation approach. The results have not been consistent but with two weeks of rest and also being one of the best Speed climbers, 6.28 gives him good chances.
Kai Harada: The Boulder World Champion in 2018, who made several Lead finals in 2019, has had #13 as his best results out of four WC events in 2021. The reason for the poor results in 2021 is unknown but with 6.34 as Speed PB and also being at his home turf, he could make final.
Colin Duffy: The 17-year-old was #3 in Lead in Villars and #9 in Bouldering in Innsbruck. PB in Speed is 6.75.
Nathaniel Coleman: Bouldering specialist with 5 - 21 - 10 - 6 as his promising WC bouldering results in 2021.

20% chance making final
Mickael Mawem: The Frenchman has only done Boulder and Speed World Cups in 2021 and his best results are #10 respectively #11.
Aleksei Rubtsov: Bouldering World Champion in 2009 after having trained climbing for only four years qualified to Tokyo by winning the Euro Championship in Moscow in 2020. He has deliberately not done any Speed IFSC comps in 2021 and needs probably to be at least Top-4 in Bouldering to make finals.
Jongwon Chon: He won the Bouldering World Cup in 2015 and 2017 but has struggled since. This year he was #8 and #43 in Innsbruck.

15% (or lower*) chance making final
Jan Hojer: The German has competed in six World Cups in 2021 and twice he has been #19. His PB in Speed is 6.46.
Sean McColl: The Canadian has been one of the best competitors during the last ten years but he was #19 and #33 in Salt Lake City and his Speed PB is 6.99.
Yufei Pan: He has not done any IFSC comps since 2019 when he qualified for the Olympics in Toulouse. Previously, the Chinese has only once made it to any WC finals.
Michael Piccolruaz: Training partner to Jakob Schubert who has was #12 in Salt Lake City but all the other six WC events #31 and below.
Tom O'Halloran 2%*: The Australian representative who has not done any IFSC events since 2019 when he was #32 in the Lead World Championship.
Christoffer Gosser 1%*: The South African representative with a 6.83 PB in Speed.

Speed specialists
Bassa Mawem, Ludovico Fossali and Rishat Khaibullin, out of which Rishat is the only decent climber also in Lead and in Boulder. In practice, the Speed winner will make it to the finals but they are also challenged by Tomoa Narasaki. In theory, there could be two Speed specialists in the finals but then the runner-up (Rishat) needs to be #2 in Speed and beat five guys in Lead and in Boulder.

From a mathematical point of view, you most probably need a maximal score of around 450 to make it to the final. Here are some examples of that;
8 * 7 * 8 = 448
4 * 8 * 14 = 448
3 * 9 * 17 = 459
2 * 14 * 16 = 448