Pan-Am Combined with 2 or 3 Tokyo tickets at stake

Allanah Yip from Canada, #14 in the Hachioji, is the big favorit to win the Pan-Am Combined Championship in Los Angeles, getting an Olympic ticket. As a matter of a fact, as USA has already filled their country quota, it is good enough to be the #1 excluding the ones from USA. Among the male, Sean Bailay or another one from USA is likely to make it to Tokyo, meaning also that they will their max two country quota. Rudolph "Drew" Ruana from USA, #13 in the Combined World Championship, will not participate but he should get the tripartite ticket as long as USA does not win and fill their quota. The Tripartite is supposed to go to a micro Olympic nation but as no such athlete did participate in the Combined event in Hachioji, Ruana is next in line. So Ruana from USA might hope for a Canadian winner. Michael Piccolruaz, on the other hand, hopes that USA will fill up their country quota as then the Italian is next in line to get the Tripartite ticket. However, if an Italian (Stefano Ghisolfi) wins the European Combined then Italy has filled their country quota and Jernej Kruder will get the Tripartite ticket. In practice, as most probably the male winner in Los Angeles will come from USA, Piccolruaz should have like 67 % chance to get the tripartite ticket. Runner-up is Ruana with 25 % and then Kruder has the remaining 8 %.