Olympic prediction odds

Making an Olympic prediction is harder than ever. One year has passed since the last Lead World Cup. Furthermore, only half of the Olympians participated in all three events in Salt Lake City last month. We nevertheless take the chance to predict the winning odds for the Top-5:

1. Tomoa Narasaki 2.5 - Janja Garnbret 1.3
2. Adam Ondra 3.5 - Miho Nonaka 6.0
3. Jakob Schubert 7.0 - Akiyo Noguchi 9.0
4. Bassa Mawem FRA* 9999 - Aleksandra Miroslaw* 999
5. Kai Harada 12 - Brooke Raboutou 11

Narasaki is predicted to win because he is on home turf and can challenge the Speed specialists. If he wins Speed it will be hard for Ondra or Schubert to catch him as they probably will be among the lowest ranked in Speed.

Garnbret is also the fastest among the non-Speed specialists and is the big favourite to win both Lead and Boulder. It should be mentioned that either Mawem or Miroslaw participated in the Boulder events in Salt Lake City. It just might be the best strategy for the Speed specialists to skip any Lead or Boulder training whatsoever, as it for them comes down to who wins Speed, see below.

*The most certain prediction in the Tokyo Olympics is that, due to the multiplication format, there will be a Speed specialist finishing #4 or #5. The Speed qualification winner will probably make it to the Top-8 final even if being dead last in Lead and Boulder, in the qualification. Among the females, with four Speed specialists and the African representative, it is actually possible that the Top-2 in Speed will make it to the final, meaning that there is a "risk" for a Speed specialists bronze. Mathematically, and considering potential non-sportsmanship actions, the risk is actually rather big. It just takes that the #2 in Speed finishes around #16 in Boulder and #14 in Lead and she could advance to the final, as long as some of the best like Janja Garnbret, Miho Nonaka and Akiyo Noguchi are highly ranked in all disciplines.

Another twist is that, for the sake of creating the best show, let us hope that Rishat Khaibullin makes it to the final. He can challenge the speed specialist while being ok also in Boulder. In the World Championship, he got the bronze and he can do it again if he is at least Top-2 in Speed in the qualification.