Olympic prediction

1. Tomoa Narasaki JPN - Janja Garnbret SLO
2. Adam Ondra CZE - Miho Nonaka JPN
3. Jakob Schubert AUT - Akiyo Noguchi JPN
4. Bassa Mawem FRA* - Anouck Jaubert FRA*
5. Kai Harada JPN - Shauna Coxsey GBR
6. Alex Megos GER - Viktoria Meshkova RUS
7. Alberto Gines Lopez ESP - Laura Rogora ITA
8. Alexey Rubtsov RUS - Petra Klingler SUI
9. Jan Hojer GER - Brooke Raboutou USA
10. Rishat Khaibullin KAZ* - YiLing Song CHI*

*The most certain prediction in the Tokyo Olympics is that, due to the multiplication format, there will be a Speed specialist finishing #4 or #5. The Speed qualification winner will probably make it to the Top-8 final even if being dead last in Lead and Boulder. Among the female, with four Speed specialists and the African representant, it is actually possible that the Top-2 in Speed will make it to the final, meaning that there exists a "risk" for a Speed specialists bronze. Mathematically, including also some potential non-sportsmanship acting, the risk is actually rather big. It just takes that the #2 in Speed is like #16 in Boulder and #14 in Lead and she could advance to the final, as long as some of the best like Janja Garnbret, Miho Nonaka and Akiyo Noguchi are high ranked in all disciplines.

Another twist is that, from creating the best show, let us hope for Rishat Khaibullin making it to the final. He can challenge the speed-specialist although being ok also in Boulder. In the World Championship, he got the bronze and he can do it again if he is at least Top-2 in Speed.