31 July 2021
Olympic Preconditions and Key Moments
The multiplication format creates dramatic preconditions for Climbing in the Olympics. After only some 30 minutes of the first qualification day, it will pretty much be decided who among the Speed specialists will be #4 or #5 in the final. Such an overall score, you will mathematically get by multiplying 1*20*20 in the qualification and 1*8*8. In theory, Tomoa Narasaki could beat all Speed specialists and if so, he will most certainly also win Speed in the final, creating a crucial advantage over Adam Ondra & Co.
It is expected that most Olympians will play it rather safe in the first Speed run as a false start means you are disqualified from doing a second run. On the other hand, especially the Speed specialists starting last will probably partly base their strategy on what is needed to be #1. directly from the first race.
When it comes to Bouldering, the starting order is probably set up by the reversed order to the qualification seeding, i.e. Narasaki and Janja Garnbret will start last. This is normally a disadvantage as the friction will deteriorate due to the chalk etc. Viktoria Meshkova starts #2 which is an advantage. Among the males, Colin Duffy starts as #3 and Adam Ondra as #10.
The biggest chance for an outsider to make good results occurs in bouldering. Sometimes the route setting benefits certain athletes and there is a bigger element of luck in bouldering compared to Speed and Lead. In the final, there will be only three boulders and thus many will score the same number of tops.
Finally, the uncertainties of the athletes' current shape must be mentioned. Almost all of the 40 Olympians have just done a limited number of comps, or none at all, in 2021. It would be sensational if any of these would take a medal as just training is not ideal preparation.
The biggest chances of creating a surprise are; Great Speed progress by Ondra, Coxey back in great shape in Bouldering, YueFei Pan progress in all three disciplines and of course any of the lower-ranked having focused on Speed challenging the specialists.
It is expected that most Olympians will play it rather safe in the first Speed run as a false start means you are disqualified from doing a second run. On the other hand, especially the Speed specialists starting last will probably partly base their strategy on what is needed to be #1. directly from the first race.
When it comes to Bouldering, the starting order is probably set up by the reversed order to the qualification seeding, i.e. Narasaki and Janja Garnbret will start last. This is normally a disadvantage as the friction will deteriorate due to the chalk etc. Viktoria Meshkova starts #2 which is an advantage. Among the males, Colin Duffy starts as #3 and Adam Ondra as #10.
The biggest chance for an outsider to make good results occurs in bouldering. Sometimes the route setting benefits certain athletes and there is a bigger element of luck in bouldering compared to Speed and Lead. In the final, there will be only three boulders and thus many will score the same number of tops.
Finally, the uncertainties of the athletes' current shape must be mentioned. Almost all of the 40 Olympians have just done a limited number of comps, or none at all, in 2021. It would be sensational if any of these would take a medal as just training is not ideal preparation.
The biggest chances of creating a surprise are; Great Speed progress by Ondra, Coxey back in great shape in Bouldering, YueFei Pan progress in all three disciplines and of course any of the lower-ranked having focused on Speed challenging the specialists.
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