Mathematical scenarios in Tokyo

EDITORIAL

15 July 2021

The Combined format in Tokyo is based on the multiplication of the results in all three disciplines. This means that it is much better to excel in one discipline rather than being consistent in all disciplines. Here are some ranking examples

1. Tomoa Narasaki 2 * 1 * 6 = 12 (Speed - Boulder - Lead)
2. Adam Ondra 7 * 3 * 1 = 21
3. Jakob Schubert 6 * 2 * 2 = 24
4*. Bassa Mawem 1 * 8 * 8 = 64
5. Alberto Gines Lopez 3 * 6 * 5 = 90
6. Alex Megos 8 * 4 * 3 = 96
7. Alexey Rubtsov 4 * 5 * 7 = 140
8. Colin Duffy 5 * 7 * 4 = 140

As we know, one slip in any of the disciplines can dramatically change the ranking. Particularly so in Bouldering, where a bit of luck could put any of the finalists, besides the Speed specialists, on top. Let us say Megos wins in Bouldering while all other results above are kept the same. 1. Megos = 24 (wins as he beats Narasaki in two out of three events)
2. Narasaki = 24
3. Ondra = 28
4. Schubert = 36
5. Mawem = 64

* The Speed qualification winner will probably end as #4 in the final. Another possibility is that there will be two Speed specialists in the final, which then increases the "risk" for one of them getting the bronze although not scoring one zone in Bouldering as well as just making two clips or so in Lead. However, Narasaki could win Speed meaning that he probably will get a maximal score of 14 and thus Ondra, or any other, need to win both in Lead and Boulder to get the gold.

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