Piccolruaz and Jaubert likely to get the Tripartite Olympic ticket

One Olympic spot is supposed to be given to an athlete from a small Olympic nation through the Tripartite Commission. However, as IFSC forgot to invite any such climber, this extra spot will go to the next best climber in the World Championship, respecting the country quota. As it stands, before the Combined Continental Championships, Anouck Jaubert from France and Rudolph Ruana are next in line. However, if let us say Fanny Gibert and Sean Bailay get their ticket in these events, their country quota are filled and they are out. Next in line are Di Niu from China and Michael Piccolruaz from Italy who have to hope Yue Tong Zhang and Stefano Ghisofi do not their tickets in the Continental Champonship. In theory, Ievgeniia Kazbekova #20 in the World Championship and Jernej Kruder #16 in Hachioji could, in fact, make it to Tokyo if all results go their way. Here are my speculations who are most likely to get the Tripartite ticket; Michael Piccolruaz 80 % - Anouck Jaubert 60 % Rudolph Ruana 15 % - Di Niu 39 % Jernej Kruder 5 % - Ievgeniia Kazbekova 1 % It should also be mentioned that Ruana has great chances to get the ticket on his own merit in the Continational Championship. The same goes for Piccolruaz but to a less extent. At the same time, none of the mentioned females are likely to the ticket in the Continental Championship.