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Is it counterproductive to train Speed before 2020?  (43)

Although nobody agreed on the Combination format in the Olympics, many of the best have said they will go for it or have started trying the other disciplines. However, with the multiplication format it might be counter-productive to seriously train Speed before the qualifications are over.

Most likely, some 20 Speed specialist will try it out, as if you win the Speed and get lucky in Boulder, you just might make it to Tokyo. This means that the very best Speed climber, out of the regular guys focusing on Lead and Boulder, can only get #21 in Speed. On the other hand, training Speed and especially the leg muscles, will most certainly have some negative aspects on Boulder and especially Lead performance.

Here is the math showing that it might be counter-productive to seriously train Speed before the qualifications is over. The base of the analysis is that you drop (at least) one position in Lead and Boulder if you seriously train Speed.

21 (Speed) * 3 * 3 = 189, looses to 47 * 2 * 2 = 188
21 (Speed) * 2 * 5 = 210, looses to 52 * 1 * 4 = 208

Training Speed seriously to become #21 in the World Champion qualification should mean at least 5 hours a week. This will make you gain at least 2 - 4 kilos at the same time you will have less time for training Lead and Boulder as well as getting outdoors. In other words, the guys investing in serious Speed training will loose much more than just one position. This means that the "ordinary" results in the World Cup also will deteriorate and if you can not evolve yourself into an Olympic robot, your mental health and strength will be poor when the qualification starts.

In fact, Janja Garnbret and Adam Ondra just might have greater chances to win the golds by totally skipping any serious Speed training what so ever. First they will enjoy and have fun winning all the World Cups as many of their competitors will be weaker both physically as well as mentally.

The twist of this counter-productive claim is that in Tokyo, where all the Speed specialists that eat Lead and Boulderers as breakfast, have failed to make it. The #21 Speed guy would finally get turn on his investment winning Speed in the first round where 20 competes. Any how, if Ondra walks the Speed track in 20 seconds and then win Boulder and Speed, he will get an multiplicative score of 6 points. Even if the Speed winner remarkably gets #2 and #3 in Lead and Boulder, he is runner up overall.

1 (Speed) * 2 * 3 = 6, looses to 6 * 1 * 1 = 6 on count back