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Easier to win Lead WC in 2019 and 2020 
 

2019 is a unique year in competition climbing due to the Olympic selection. The Top-7 in the Combined WCH will qualify to Tokyo and then the Top-20 in the Overall Combined WC ranking will fight over 6 spots in a special event. The Overall Combined is based on the two best results in each discipline which are multiplied.

In practice this means that, most probably, the best athletes will be selective which comps to go for. As soon as they have qualified through the WCH or are sure to qualify to the special event they will skips some comps and instead focus on training. Add to that that the Japan Combined Championship, which will decide who will compete in the WCH, will be in late May. Here is a list which comps most probably will have the weakest starting list. Possibly it could be strategic for the guys just below the best to skip some comps and instead focus on the three listed below, beside the WCH and the special event.

7/6 Vail USA Bouldering
19/10 Xiamen China Lead/Speed
26/10 Inzai Japan Lead

11-22/8 Japan World Championship
28/11 - 1/12 Toulouse France

The consequence of this is also that, most probably, it will be easier than ever to win or get a good result in especially the Lead World Cup 2019. The reasons for this are that the best will not do all WCs and also that they will not be optimized for Lead in 2019 as most of the best will train all three disciplines simultaneously.

It might be that it will be more or less the same situation in 2020 as most of the best will focus training all three disciplines and skip some World Cups. Later, either climbing will have medals in three disciplines or we will be out of the Olympics and then it will be much harder to win the World Cup for sure. Add to that the trend of increasing domination from Japan who just might have five in Top-10 in all categories but Speed in the future.