4 March 2017

FIFA changes penalty rule confirming 8a thoughts

Statistics show that the team that starts penalty kick shootouts in football wins in over 60 % of the cases and in the World Championship the favor to begin is even greater. In order to reduce the coin flip, deciding who is going to start, FIFA has decided to start a test with similar rule like in tennis tie break. First, one penalty followed with two penalties by the other team. Research has been carried out suggesting that the simple reason for the 60 % winning probability for the first team relates to lower pressure to start a penalty kick shootout. In bouldering comps, the results in the final show a similar outcome as early starters have relatively good final results in comparison to their semi results. The best example of this is found from Anna Stรถhr's record showing that she did win some 70 % when she started first but only some 35 % when she started last. Kind of strange that in the comps where she won the semifinal, she had the lowest percentage of winning the final, and vice versa. The second best example is from the world champions showing a correlation that the worse result you had during the semi (meaning you started in the beginning), the better result you had in the final. In fact, the 6 + 6 male and female who were #6 in the semi and started first in the final have won five gold and three silver! 8a has pondered this since since 2007, when we saw Daniel Dulac onsighting all four boulders in the final but in the final he was dead last. The French climber did later comment that he could not handle the pressure knowing that once he tried the boulder, he did know that most guys had already topped it. FIFA has dealt with the starting first advantage problem. It is about time that also IFSC make some changes in the rule, creating more exciting finals where the winner is not decided before the last climber out has started the final boulder.
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