Coleman & Niu will probably get the tripartite Olympic ticket

As no athletes from micro Olympic nations took part in the Combined WCH, there will be no Tripartite selection. This means that the selection will be reallocated to the next best in Hachioji, not yet qualified, respecting the max country quota. At the moment, it means that Yannick Flohé and Anouck Jaubert have a provisional ticket to Tokyo. However, if Jan Hojer respectively Fanny Gibert and Julia Chanouride qualify in Toulouse or at the European Championship, Flohé and Jaubert are kicked out due to the max country quota. This would mean the reallocation of the tripartite selection will go to Nathaniel Coleman from USA and Julia Chanouride. This is also the case of Flohé and Jaubert qualify in Toulouse or at the Euro CH. In practice, it could be that France have gotten their max quota and then Chanouride is out and the tripartite reallocation will go to Mia Krampl. However, as Krampl could have qualified or that Slovenia has reached their max country quota, then Di Niu from China would go to Tokyo. Out of all possibly scenarios, here are the probabilities for the top ranked getting the the Tripartite reallocation; Di Niu 33 % - Nathaniel Coleman 67 % Anouck Jaubert 32 % - Yannick Flohé 30 % Mia Krampl 30 % - Others 3 % Others 5 % In theory at least five more male and female could get the tripartie reallocation if all the above qualifies or their nation have reached the max country quota. Here are the overall probabilities that the mentioned athletes will make it to Tokyo; 80 % Nathaniel Coleman & Anouck Jaubert 67 % Mia Krampl & Yannick Flohé (meaning 33 % for Jan Hojer) 40 % Di Niu