2022 prediction and trends

Based on that the qualification to Paris Olympics will take place in 2023, it is likely that several of the top competitors like Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert and Alex Megos will focus more on rock climbing in 2022. This will probably mean that referring to grades, we will see a record number of hardcore ascents. Specifically, women like Janja Garnbret, Laura Rogora, Brooke Raboutou and Natalia Grossman will probably reduce the gender gap. At the same time, there are many youngsters eager to start competing on the World Cup circuit. Most likely, we will see records in participant numbers, especially for the Youth Cups as the federations will receive more resources as climbing is part of the Olympic family.

Furthermore, also the kids that benefit from better and more gyms and coaches, will set new records and close the grade gap to the adults. Another trend is probably also that the local rock climbing communities will be strengthen developing, especially, more super easy routes and boulders. The reason for this is of course that many will hesitate to plan longer trips due to Covid and also that there will be more consideration of the environment.

Here are some predictions for 2022
Two females send 8C
Three females send 9b
Three males do 9A
Five males send 9b+
Adam Ondra onsights 9a+ (which he later downgrades)
Three kids (below age 13) send 9a
Three kids send 8B+

All these send in spite of a record number of downgrades (especially in Spain).