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Forum: SWE / Editorial / Speed might loose importance in 2019 Login in to contribute
Speed might loose importance in 2019
OffLine 8a.nu
  2019-02-08 00:00:00    
The Combined World Cup in 2019 is based on the Top-2 "relative" results in the three disciplines. Last year, almost non of the Speed specialist took part meaning that Jakob Schubert "relatively" was #2 in his best comp although he was #26 among the Speed specialists.

If ten of the Speed specialist will do two boulder and two lead events, the Speed performance will dramatically loose it's importance for the non-Speed specialists. Schubert's Combined score in 2018 was 1 in Lead, 6 in Boulder and 8 in Speed = 48 points.

In 2018, he could have been beaten by climber A who had scored 6 in Lead, 7 in Boulder and 1 in Speed = 42 points or climber B with 1 * 1 * 45 = 45 points.

If we add ten Speed climbers, their new ranking would be:
1. B = 55 points instead of 45
2. Schubert = 108 points instead of 48
3. A = 462 points instead of 47

In other words, if ten male Speed climbers show up in Meiringen 5/4, the non-speed specialist could more or less set their Speed training at pause. Actually, even with just five Speed specialist competing in Combined in 2019, Speed climbing will dramatic loose it’s importance in 2019.
OffLine Igor Primc
  2019-02-09 17:30:32    
Am just I so stupid or is it hard to find any sense in this post?
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-09 17:49:43    
I am sorry for not being able to explain this rather complex situation in a more simple way.

As you can see from the example, the guys being poor in Speed, Climber B, will relatively gain if many Speed Specialist show up.

Guys like Schubert, Narasaki and Hojer who had a very good Speed ranking in 2018, will loose much more compared to Climber B, if many Speed climbers show up.

Let us say, 1 000 Speed specialist show up, then it would not have any impact at all ranking the non-Speed Specialist as they would be ranked 1001, 1002...etc.

Last year they were ranked 1, 2, 3 etc.

Do you get it know?
OffLine Igor Primc
  2019-02-09 18:19:20    
You have a point, but show me a climber who could be 1 in speed and in 6 lead?
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-09 18:40:18    
In 2018, there were many but in 2019 it can never happen if ten Speed climbers show up. Then guys like Schubert and Narasaki fight for #11.
OffLine Jason Crank
  2019-02-11 22:38:57    
Yes, someone who goes 1,6,8 will be beaten by someone who goes 6,7,1
And by someone who goes 5,8,1
Thats just how the math works. Why are we not concerned about lead specialists? Or bouldering specialists? Is it because theres a larger overlap in those groups?
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-11 22:51:04    
If 20 Speed specialist will compete in Combined, guys like Narasaki will relatively loose.

Instead of winning Speed, he will be 21. This means the importance of Speed will be reduced for guys like him.
OffLine Jon Megent
  2019-02-12 14:33:37    
@ Jens, can you give some proof to your claim that guys like Narasaki will relatively lose, and that speed will be less important? That means showing a) different climbers will make the finals, b) how the podium and other places after finals will differ.
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-12 17:19:00    
The ”proof” has already been explained. Please read it again :)
OffLine Jon Megent
  2019-02-15 04:53:30    
I was curious how speed specialists might have changed qualifying for the 2018 World Championship combined. So I did two calculations.

First I figured out the point totals in qualifying, if ten top speed specialists had taken part. I did this by adding 10 to each climber's speed score. Then I multiplied the scores for each discipline to get the total qualifying.

Next I did the same thing if 20 top speed specialists had taken part in qualifying. This time I added 20 to each climber's speed score. In both cases I assume the speed specialists get all the top 10 or 20 places in speed – which may not be true, given how chancy speed can be - and that results for boulder and lead don't change (at least at the top). At any rate, this seems to me a worst-case scenario, i.e. the highest scores possible for guys like Narasaki, Schubert, Ondra, etc.

Here are the scores. First for qualifying if ten speed specialists took part...

297 Harada
623 Schubert
640 T. Narasaki
1482 Fuji
1536 Ondra
2760 Hojer
3000 M. Narasaki
4094 Chon

The top six qualifiers turned out the same as in the actual championship. Only difference is that Schubert and Narasaki traded places. The top eight were a bit different: Narasaki and Chon filled the last two spots in this exercise, where M. Mawem and M. Narasaki came in 7th and 8th in the actual comp.

How would the speed specialists have done? Whoever won speed would have had to place in the low 50s in both lead and boulder to break into the top six last year. To make top eight would have required low 60s in both disciplines.

Now for the point totals if 20 speed specialists took part in qualifying...

387 Harada
693 Schubert
1040 T. Narasaki
1776 Ondra
2052 Fuji
3960 Hojer
4000 M. Narasaki
4554 Chon

Top eight are exactly the same as when 10 speed specialists took part, except Ondra and Fuji traded places. In this case, whoever won speed would have to place around 67th or better in both lead and boulder to make top eight.

These results suggest several things. One, including 10 speed specialists probably wouldn't have changed qualifying results much last year. With only six finalists, the speed specialist winner would have to do quite well in both lead and boulder to make finals. However, the more speed specialists that take part, the easier it is for one of them to break into finals (though it's still hard).

Two, speed specialists have a better chance to make finals with eight climbers.

Three, speed doesn't matter so much in qualifying if you do great in lead/boulder. But doing great in any two of the three disciplines means you almost surely will make finals, even if you do poorly in the third. This of course is the big advantage boulderers/lead climbers have. They get to multiply two fairly small numbers (in lead and boulder) by a relatively large number (in speed). For speed specialists the opposite is true. They multiply one small number by two large ones.

Four, once you're in finals, speed matters a helluva lot. Schubert beat Ondra in last year's combined because he did better at speed. That would have been true even if a speed specialist had taken part. Narasaki lost at least a medal, and maybe gold, when he came in last in speed, even though he had the fastest times.

Also worth noting that if a speed specialist had made finals last year, he may well have gotten bronze. He would have taken Hojer's place, and 36 points probably would have come in third.
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-15 08:43:22    
The article discusses the World Cup and not the World Championship. The big changes would be in the Combined World Cup where almost no Speed specialist took part.