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Forum: GLOBAL / Editorial / Olympic prediction #8 Login in to contribute
Olympic prediction #8
OffLine 8a.nu
  2019-05-03 00:00:00    
1. Adam Ondra CZE - Janja Garnbret SLO
2. Jakob Schubert AUT - Akiyo Noguchi JPN
3. Tomoa Narasaki JPN - Miho Nonaka* JPN
4. Kokoro Fujii* JPN - Jessica Pilz AUT
5. Mickael Mawem FRA - Petra Klingler SUI
6. Jan Hojer GER- Anna Tsyganova RUS
7. Jernej Kruder SLO- Julia Chanordie FRA
8. Alex Megos GER - Sol Sa KOR

* Only two from each country is allowed to participate. There are several more especially male Japaneses that could be Top-4 if they qualify.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 09:43:12    
6. - Anna Tsyganova RUS
7. - Julia Chanordie FRA

Based on WHAT?? :P
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 11:04:42    
Tsyganova is the best boulderer among the Speed specialists. Last weekend she was #31 in Congqing and she started off by being #4 in Speed in Moscow. Her combined results in 2019 might be 1 * 1 * 25 * 25 * 40 * 40 = 1 000 000 which could make her qualify to Toulouse. If so, she will most probably make it to Tokyo and there most probably to the Top-8 just because she will win Speed.

Remember that 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 = 1 000 000 also. It is a very big advantage to be best in one discipline based on the multiplication system.

Chanouride was #5 in the Lead WC in 2017. She was #17 in Chongqing and in Speed she was #36 today. I have been told that she is looking very strong in all three disciplines this year.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 11:30:19    
Tsyganova never won a single speed competition. What makes you think she will win twice this year?

>I have been told that she is looking very strong
Maybe you should look a result table instead of listening how strong somebody LOOKS?
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 11:45:36    
You just need to win among the ones doing all three disciplines to get the relative ranking #1.

Chanourdie was four times Top-4 in Lead 2017. She was #17 in Meiringen were she was #3 in her group and last weekend she was #14. Previously she has just done Boulder WC where she was #63 last year so it seems what I have been told is correct. Last year her best time in Speed was 11.63 and today she got 9.99. She is 22 years old so we will probably see some good progress this year. Do you have any other name you think is more actual for making the Olympic final?
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 12:05:14    
Most of the best speed climbers are also doing bouldering (and probably lead) this year, including Song and Jaubert, actual and former record holders.

Why do you make predictions based on 2017(!) results? And on the results of one of qualis groups?! And why is 22 yrs better than others to make good progress?
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 12:50:18    
I do my best and possibly I am wrong. Time well tell. Julia has shown great progress in 2019 in Bouldering and Speed and will she get back to the shape as of 2017 in Lead (as my source say), she will be up there.

Even if you win all events in Speed you will not make it if you do not perform in Lead and Boulder. Tsyganova is the only one that has that potential according to me.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 15:09:56    
I can see no great progress in bouldering and in speed almost every non-specialist with mediocre results in 2018 is making 'great' progress in 2019. IF anyone gets back in shape, s/he would make a great progress...

Tsyganova: 3 of 6 speed WC's are over. So her qualification results realistically will be more like 4*4... that's 16(!) times greater product then you 'predicted'. So, why you think she has the potential and e.g. Jaubert hasn't?
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 15:44:45    
Only three out of seven Speed WC's are over.

Sure if all Speed specialist would take part in the Combined, her result would be worse. Tsyganova is the only one of the Speed specialists who have performed also on a high level in Bouldering. My point here is that once a Speed specialist qualify to Toulouse, it is likely that that climber would be #7 at worst in Tokyo.

YiLing Song has won twice in Bouldering at the same time she has been #59 and #67 Bouldering. If she or any other that can win twice in Speed could make it four times Top-40 in Lead and Boulder, is likely to be #7 in Tokyo. I would not be so surprised if the Speed specialist in the end will act partly as a team and avoid participating in the second Lead event if that means a Speed specialist can make it.

In any case, I will put an * also here and explain it better :)
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 16:06:28    
Here is a new article I plan to publish discussing how Speed has difference importance during different events.

The Top-20 in the Combined World Cup 2019 will be selected to the Olympic qualifying event in Toulouse in November. The Top-20 ranking will be based on the Top-2 best relative results multiplicated among the ones doing all three disciplines.

Among the female, most of best Speed climbers seem to go for all disciplines meanwhile the opposite applies for the male. In practice this means that the results in Speed, among the best female non-Speed specialists, are not so important as nobody will not be ranked better than #10 in Speed. Among the male, the best non-speed specialist are competing for getting #5.

During the Qualifying event and in Tokyo, most probably only just a maximum of one female Speed specialist will participate making it possibly for Kokoro Fujii and Miho Nonaka to become #1 and #2 in Speed.

This relative ranking multiplication system might be the reason why Adam Ondra gives so low priority for Speed in the start of the 2019 season. It is more important to secure ranking #1 in Boulder rather to improve from being #40 to #21 in the relatively Speed ranking.

In any case, Adam needs to participate in two Speed WCs, in order to get a Combined ranking and he is scheduled to participate in Villars in July. In practice, being among the last in Speed you will probably be #10 in the Combined ranking although winning four in Lead and Boulder; 1 * 1 * 1* 1 * 60 * 60 = 3 600

On the other hand, even if you are dead last in Speed you have great chances winning the Combined WCH, in Toulouse and in Tokyo if you are #1 in Lead and Bouldering.
1 * 1 * 8 = 8, beats
2 * 2 * 2 = 8 due to better individual ranking (edited)

The worst hardship for winning any of these events is probably qualifying to the Top-8 Combined final in Japan as 1 * 2 * 60 might not be enough.
OffLine Eddie Fowke
  2019-05-03 17:34:51    
"Tsyganova never won a single Speed competition"
Well, except World Champs...
Oh, and European Champs...
And has another Silver from another World Champs, and yet another from another European Champs...
OffLine Eddie Fowke
  2019-05-03 17:34:52    
"Tsyganova never won a single Speed competition"
Well, except World Champs...
Oh, and European Champs...
And has another Silver from another World Champs, and yet another from another European Champs...
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 20:51:28    
@Eddie, seems you haven't read the thread, we are talking about world CUPS. And her chances about winning 2 world cup events (out of three) in the rest of 2019 season... So, no wins in world cups so far and -- her last win on major comps was in 2016...

>"Only three out of seven Speed WC's are over."

4. IFSC Climbing Worldcup (L, S) - Villars (SUI), 4 - 6 July 2019
5. IFSC Climbing Worldcup (L, S) - Chamonix (FRA), 11 - 13 July 2019
6. IFSC Climbing Worldcup (L, S) - Xiamen (CHN), 18 - 20 October 2019

Which one is the seventh?
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-03 21:03:45    
You were the one saying four events had taken place and now you have edited your post :)
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-03 21:22:33    
I edited it minutes after posting and you claim 7 WC's HOURS later...
OnLine Rajko Zajc
  2019-05-05 09:19:34    
@jens
2*2*4=16!?
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-05 13:48:10    
Edited :)

Kind of a good prediction for Julia getting her best ever Boulder result in Wujiang :)
OffLine Kuba Główka
  2019-05-06 14:55:16    
Just to be sure that we have an update on the speed female front:
IFSC Climbing Worldcup (B,S) - Wujiang (CHN) 2019 as of 2019/5/5 8:19:44 General result WOMEN bouldering: 29th Jaubert Anouck FRA 2T4z (scoring #IFSCwc points in bouldering!)

I would assume that most of top speed climbers will participate in combined cup 2019. To calculate their chances for Touluse qualification event it is not so clear. Lots of complex implications are involved. Remember that the ones that will qualify through Tokyo WCH 2019 will not need to go to Touluse - making places for the ones that are 21st-26th in the combined cup 2019 ranking (or not attending the events to be in that ranking).

My personal opinion is that Adam Ondra (and maybe others) may skip the combined cup if he get the qualification in Tokyo WCH.
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-06 15:06:12    
As the Toulouse qualification event is the only competition using the identical format as in the Olympics in Tokyo, I would be surprised if not Ondra and others that might qualify before, not take part.

I am sure they will be very selective in the World Cup 2019 and 2020 but it would not be smart to skip Toulouse to get a feeling for the format.
OffLine Tim Hatch
  2019-05-06 15:27:49    
OffLine Tim Hatch
  2019-05-06 15:27:53    
@Kuba,

If I have read the IOC/IFSC qualification paper correctly, then the 7 competitors who qualify from Hachiōji wouldn’t be eligible to compete in Toulouse. Anyone can have a bad day, but there we could probably guess 2/3 of the 7 who we might expect to qualify through that route (Hachiōji)
My guess is that placing in the top 30 of the Combined WC Ranking may be enough to get to Toulouse, but we’ll see
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-06 15:42:04    
Thanks Tim.

It would be totally unfair it some will not be allowed to compete in Toulouse. Where have you found that?
OffLine Tim Hatch
  2019-05-06 16:15:17    
In the paper entitled "QUALIFICATION SYSTEM – GAMES OF THE XXXII OLYMPIAD – TOKYO 2020"
There's a link somewhere on the IFSC website.

Toulouse is not a "practice event", it's a qualifying event to select 6 climbers (from the 20 in attendance) in addition to the 7 already qualified from Hachioji
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-06 16:17:09    
Current ranking (best 2 speed and 2 boulder results in WC 2019) below.
Note "the only one that has that potential" is currently placed #7, after Song #2, Jaubert #4 and Rudzinska #5.


Rank Climber Product
1 GARNBRET Janja (SLO) 1080
2 SONG YiLing (CHN) 2537
3 NOGUCHI Akiyo (JPN) 4080
4 JAUBERT Anouck (FRA) 6786
5 RUDZINSKA Aleksandra (POL) 10318
6 KLINGLER Petra (SUI) 19800
7 TSYGANOVA Anna (RUS) 23312
8 GIBERT Fanny (FRA) 24300
9 PILZ Jessica (AUT) 24510
10 SA Sol (KOR) 46592
11 ITO Futaba (JPN) 47880
12 SUSANTI RAHAYU Aries (INA) 61600
13 YIP Alannah (CAN) 68904
14 RAKOVEC Lucka (SLO) 92928
15 CHANOURDIE Julia (FRA) 99792
16 CONDIE Kyra (USA) 132608
17 NIU Di (CHN) 169920
18 KADIC Katja (SLO) 176400
19 MACKENZIE Oceania (AUS) 178002
20 KALUCKA Aleksandra (POL) 194040
21 ZHANG YueTong (CHN) 216931
22 MORI Ai (JPN) 253260
23 LETTNER Sandra (AUT) 254364
24 CAULIER Chloe (BEL) 327600
25 CHUDZIAK Patrycja (POL) 337260
26 KAZBEKOVA Ievgeniia (UKR) 347820
27 LEE Hung Ying (TPE) 372186
28 JIANG Rong (CHN) 385968
29 PHILLIPS Emily (GBR) 441600
30 NAKAMURA Mao (JPN) 460800
31 KALUCKA Natalia (POL) 509922
32 ROJAS Andrea (ECU) 714420
33 SHIRAISHI Ashima (USA) 726327
34 KRASOVSKAYA Elena (RUS) 744150
35 MESHKOVA Viktoriia (RUS) 790125
36 AGUADO Valentina (ARG) 884520
37 KIM Jain (KOR) 888720
38 KOPF Sienna (USA) 893760
39 NURUL Iqamah (INA) 1115148
40 BESTVATER Alma (GER) 1264800
41 BROZEK Anna (POL) 1287720
42 HAYES Margo (USA) 2284047
43 PANTELEEVA Iuliia (RUS) 2377620
44 KRAMPL Mia (SLO) 2715357
45 ROGORA Laura (ITA) 3555552
46 HILY Manon (FRA) 4447926
47 HIRANO Natsumi (JPN) 5987520
48 ZIJLSTRA Vera (NED) 6507930
49 KOLLER Anne-Sophie (SUI) 7352940
50 NADYA PUTRI Virgita (INA) 8232565
51 DOUMONT Heloïse (BEL) 8322384
52 MELIUS Tiffany (AUS) 13430016
53 SALSABILA Salsabila (INA) 14148933
54 BAIMA YuZhen (CHN) 15405012
55 YU Wai-ping (HKG) 19198400
56 TETZLAFF Sarah (NZL) 24780000
57 UMI CAHYANING AYUB Choirul (INA) 25366880
OffLine Tim Hatch
  2019-05-06 16:25:05    
@JLH

There's something wrong with your numbers - have you used absolute rather than relative rankings?
OffLine Kuba Główka
  2019-05-06 16:31:04    
@Tim

Thanks - I forgot to mention that some may be not allowed to Toulouse due to national maximum quota - although that is not 100% sure how this rule will be applied in practice.

@JLH
Good job. Just finished similar ranking on my side :). The speed competitors will be pushed down when the Lead component will be present (later during the year/cup) but still quite "optimistic" to see even more than one speed climbers in Toulouse.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-06 17:18:01    
@Tim, yes, absolute. With relative, see column 'Rank2' below. Not much changes, though.
@Kuba, 'Rank3' below is the ranking which assumes the (relative) rankings in lead will be the same as the rankings of bouldering comps. Four best speed competitors are still on the ranks #9 to #20...

Rank1 Rank2 Rank3 Climber Product1 Product2 Product3
1 1 1 GARNBRET Janja (SLO) 1080 272 272
2 2 9 SONG YiLing (CHN) 2537 1120 1254400
3 3 2 NOGUCHI Akiyo (JPN) 4080 1596 6384
4 5 14 JAUBERT Anouck (FRA) 6786 4176 2906496
5 6 20 RUDZINSKA Aleksandra (POL) 10318 4600 10580000
6 4 4 KLINGLER Petra (SUI) 19800 3536 56576
7 9 16 TSYGANOVA Anna (RUS) 23312 8400 5880000
8 7 3 GIBERT Fanny (FRA) 24300 5952 35712
9 8 5 PILZ Jessica (AUT) 24510 6000 72000
10 10 7 SA Sol (KOR) 46592 11970 502740
11 12 6 ITO Futaba (JPN) 47880 12350 308750
12 13 26 SUSANTI RAHAYU Aries (INA) 61600 15480 29953800
13 11 8 YIP Alannah (CAN) 68904 12288 786432
14 16 10 RAKOVEC Lucka (SLO) 92928 35712 1285632
15 15 12 CHANOURDIE Julia (FRA) 99792 32500 2112500
16 14 11 CONDIE Kyra (USA) 132608 19890 1551420
17 21 34 NIU Di (CHN) 169920 63840 97036800
18 18 13 KADIC Katja (SLO) 176400 52488 2834352
19 17 17 MACKENZIE Oceania (AUS) 178002 43740 5904900
20 20 32 KALUCKA Aleksandra (POL) 194040 54390 84522060
21 25 19 ZHANG YueTong (CHN) 216931 76032 10036224
22 31 18 MORI Ai (JPN) 253260 124338 6341238
23 19 15 LETTNER Sandra (AUT) 254364 53856 4739328
24 30 24 CAULIER Chloe (BEL) 327600 123930 21068100
25 22 39 CHUDZIAK Patrycja (POL) 337260 67500 151875000
26 35 21 KAZBEKOVA Ievgeniia (UKR) 347820 147744 11967264
27 23 25 LEE Hung Ying (TPE) 372186 68992 24285184
28 24 27 JIANG Rong (CHN) 385968 72930 37194300
29 29 22 PHILLIPS Emily (GBR) 441600 115830 15637050
30 34 23 NAKAMURA Mao (JPN) 460800 147000 20580000
31 27 38 KALUCKA Natalia (POL) 509922 87780 140096880
32 26 36 ROJAS Andrea (ECU) 714420 86688 119282688
33 41 28 SHIRAISHI Ashima (USA) 726327 359856 55057968
34 28 31 KRASOVSKAYA Elena (RUS) 744150 95256 72013536
35 37 29 MESHKOVA Viktoriia (RUS) 790125 184800 55440000
36 38 33 AGUADO Valentina (ARG) 884520 236808 93775968
37 40 35 KIM Jain (KOR) 888720 318478 102868394
38 33 30 KOPF Sienna (USA) 893760 146160 63579600
39 32 40 NURUL Iqamah (INA) 1115148 124800 194688000
40 39 37 BESTVATER Alma (GER) 1264800 265650 139466250
41 36 43 BROZEK Anna (POL) 1287720 150400 353440000
42 45 42 HAYES Margo (USA) 2284047 696256 256222208
43 42 44 PANTELEEVA Iuliia (RUS) 2377620 449190 417746700
44 43 41 KRAMPL Mia (SLO) 2715357 631028 227801108
45 46 47 ROGORA Laura (ITA) 3555552 799227 496319967
46 44 46 HILY Manon (FRA) 4447926 673920 473091840
47 47 45 HIRANO Natsumi (JPN) 5987520 1030617 454502097
48 51 48 ZIJLSTRA Vera (NED) 6507930 1909440 1374796800
49 50 50 KOLLER Anne-Sophie (SUI) 7352940 1675080 1658329200
50 49 51 NADYA PUTRI Virgita (INA) 8232565 1509600 2053056000
51 48 49 DOUMONT Heloïse (BEL) 8322384 1428840 1388832480
52 55 55 MELIUS Tiffany (AUS) 13430016 3653100 7233138000
53 52 52 SALSABILA Salsabila (INA) 14148933 2311920 3426265440
54 56 56 BAIMA YuZhen (CHN) 15405012 3896640 10287129600
55 54 54 YU Wai-ping (HKG) 19198400 3440000 5916800000
56 57 57 TETZLAFF Sarah (NZL) 24780000 6296400 16018041600
57 53 53 UMI CAHYANING AYUB Choirul (INA) 25366880 3171168 5441724288
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-06 17:28:02    
@ Tim: There is just one competition prior to the Olympics in Tokyo that are run in the same format. It is just unfair to not let everyone going for Tokyo has had the same chance for preparing.

If this rule apply it might be good enough to be actually be #30 as you say to participate in Toulouse opening up for several speed climbers. If one speed climber make it to Toulouse, probably that climber will be at worst #5 even if that climbers is dead last on all bouldering and lead events.

However, it should be mentioned that there is a process taking place for everyone qualifying to Tokyo after the WCH. Possibly if the climbers is not in the official starting list as the local federation has not approved that climber must be allowed to compete in Toulouse. So it just might be that for example Japan do not officially select the two best in the WCH in order to also let them have a practice run in Toulouse.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-06 18:45:18    
The newest document is here. Nobody already qualified through WCH in Hachioji will be allowed to compete in Toulouse:
"The twenty (20) highest ranked athletes per gender, not yet qualified through D.1 above [WCh], at the Overall World Cup Ranking will be selected for participating in the Olympic Qualifying Event".
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-05-06 18:50:05    
Sure but if they are not selected by the nation federations ... they will have the option to go for Toulouse :)
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-06 19:11:04    
The only way any of Japanese will be in Toulouse is not two athletes of each gender is already qualified through WCH. So it's very unlikely to see any Japanese in Toulouse, at least male.
OffLine JLH
  2019-05-07 10:22:35    
Same for the male, sorted by Rank3. Some remarks:
-- Ondra, Narasaki T., Ogata ... haven't jet competed in speed
-- Iarilovets the best 'combined' climber (6th in speed in Chongqing 6.26s, 13th in Bouldering Moscow)
-- lead specialists (Škofic, Desgranges...) have poor chances to qualify. Also Megos seems to have troubles with bouldering...
-- male speed specialists seem to have lower chances to qualify to OG then female (most of them perform poor in bouldering; non-specialists are closing the gap in speed; several boulder/lead specialists haven't been qualified yet)
Rank1 Rank2 Rank3 ID Product1 Product2 Product3
3 2 1 FUJII Kokoro (JPN) 12960 1456 11648
1 1 2 CORNU Manuel (FRA) 5460 546 22932
6 4 3 SUGIMOTO Rei (JPN) 43218 4200 25200
4 6 4 KRUDER Jernej (SLO) 27401 5742 34452
5 7 5 HARADA Kai (JPN) 35112 6048 78624
7 5 6 IARILOVETS Nikolai (RUS) 47502 4480 143360
8 10 7 PEHARC Anze (SLO) 51408 8648 155664
13 12 8 DOHI Keita (JPN) 91640 11160 167400
15 16 9 CHON Jongwon (KOR) 101200 14400 216000
9 9 10 HOJER Jan (GER) 60264 8400 294000
16 17 11 RUBTSOV Aleksey (RUS) 102340 17136 411264
11 15 12 SCHUBERT Jakob (AUT) 82080 13680 465120
10 14 13 MUHAMMAD Alfian (INA) 80080 13500 607500
17 13 14 PAN YuFei (CHN) 109824 13034 638666
2 3 15 MAWEM Bassa (FRA) 10366 2448 998784
12 8 16 MAWEM Mickael (FRA) 85698 8064 1645056
14 18 17 PAVLENKO Kostiantyn (UKR) 96048 22272 2850816
21 20 18 ROJI Fatchur (INA) 240408 32250 4837500
22 27 19 COLEMAN Nathaniel (USA) 350064 82500 9075000
19 19 20 JAELOLO Aspar (INA) 210903 30240 9525600
26 24 21 LUZHETSKII Sergei (RUS) 604758 68904 14883264
23 25 22 NARASAKI Meichi (JPN) 422280 76296 15564384
18 11 23 FOSSALI Ludovico (ITA) 204750 9720 15746400
20 21 24 LEHMANN Sascha (SUI) 225600 39936 16613376
25 23 25 MCCOLL Sean (CAN) 497280 68310 20493000
32 34 26 KHAZANOV Alex (ISR) 1000384 214656 22324224
33 33 27 LEVIER Alban (FRA) 1036490 213408 23048064
24 30 28 FLOHÉ Yannick (GER) 491400 104160 23436000
27 31 29 ZHONG QiXin (CHN) 674976 128154 23836644
28 26 30 PICCOLRUAZ Michael (ITA) 685125 78030 23877180
31 29 31 GRANJA Carlos (ECU) 949221 101200 25603600
34 28 32 DZIENSKI Marcin (POL) 1098981 99450 30431700
35 37 33 MEGOS Alexander (GER) 1632960 320000 32000000
30 22 34 KRIZ Jan (CZE) 927675 66560 43264000
29 32 35 BOSI William (GBR) 912050 166060 59947660
36 35 36 CHAN Cheung- chi Shoji (HKG) 2218557 248976 125483904
43 42 37 GHISOLFI Stefano (ITA) 3010176 527436 145572336
42 36 38 BROSLER John (USA) 2853144 314496 196245504
41 41 39 LORENZI Simon (BEL) 2700880 515508 205687692
38 38 40 RUANA Rudolph (USA) 2337720 376464 207808128
...
OffLine Jens Larssen
  2019-06-07 20:29:22    
@ JLH: As you might have seen, Julia Chanourdie has had very good results just as I predicted and you questioned :)