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Forum: GLOBAL / Editorial / Boldyrev is going for Tokyo - could get gold Login in to contribute
Boldyrev is going for Tokyo - could get gold
OffLine 8a.nu
  2019-02-09 00:00:00    
Danyil Boldyrev believes he and some other Speed specialist have a great chance of qualify to Tokyo during the WCH, where the Top-7 get an Olympic ticket. He will go for at least two Lead and Boulder World Cups before the WCH in Tokyo and he thinks and hope at least 15 Speed specialist will participate.

Training wise his focus is Bouldering and he hopes to be Top-40. In Lead, it might be harder for the explosive power house at 193 cm and 85 kg to fight the endurance. "In the competition I will be 78-80 kg.

"I love bouldering so much and train three to four times a week. I am a sprinter and athlete in mind, blood, muscles and I love competitions. I always focus and enjoy, and say God, thank you for new day."

The key for Boldyrev or any other Speed-specialist making it to Tokyo is not so much their personal result in Lead and Boulder but how many Speed specialists that will compete in the WCH. Further more, as only the first Japanese get a ticket to Tokyo in the WCH, in theory also #12 can qualify if all the Japanese are Top-11.

If Boldyrev win Speed and becomes #40 and #80 in the other two disciplines he should mathematically be #10 - 15 if some 15 Speed specialists participate in Combined. If there are 25 Speed specialist he would mathematically be #8 - 12. So it is certainly a long shoot for the Ukrainian or any other Speed specialist to reach Tokyo.

On the other hand there is the Tripartite option, meaning some guys will invite a qualification Lucky looser to participate. Once in Tokyo, there is like a 20 % chance that 1 * 20 * 20 will make it to the Top-8 final. Once in the Top-8 final, mathematically the chances for the bronze is like 10 %.

However, for 191 cm Boldyrev there is always the chance that he on a slab or a vertical problem he might use his reach and become one of the few doing it. Later he can just hope that the route setter has made a mistake and almost no other top the remaining three and Boldyrev gets #10 in Bouldering. In the Combined final there are just three problems 2019 so theoretically the Olympic gold winner in Tokyo can be Danyil Boldyrev.
Click to Enlarge Picture
OnLine JLH
  2019-02-11 15:50:34    
>"as only the first Japanese get a ticket to Tokyo in the WCH"

?? if there are two (or more) Japanese Top-7 at WCH, both(!) will qualify to OG2020, right?

>"Once in Tokyo, there is like a 20 % chance that 1 * 20 * 20 will make it to the Top-8 final. Once in the Top-8 final"

There will only be six athletes in OG finals.
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-11 20:08:47    
One out of the two from Japan will be selected no matter the comp results.

The new rules from 2019 says there will be eight in the Combined final.
OffLine paolocar88
  2019-02-11 22:50:47    
OffLine Sune Hermit
  2019-02-12 07:47:11    
As usual, high journalistic standards here on 8a. So tell me, is the guy 191 cm or 193 cm? Both numbers are written in this outstanding example of climbing journalism.
OffLine frank krane
  2019-02-12 09:18:25    
I go all in that he will never ever take gold and any medal. To me he will not even qualify for the olympics. He is super good at speed and will not be enough.
OnLine JLH
  2019-02-12 09:38:03    
Hm, I was not aware of the change from 6 to 8. That also means that 2018 Youth OG (and WCH2018 Innsbruck) were actually not in 'Olympic format' ;)

Regarding OG2020 qualification: are you trying to say that only one competitor from any country will be qualified for OG at Hachioji and only one at Toulouse? Sounds very strange (and unfair) to me... Can you give us any link to this 'rule'?

@Sune, 191 vs 193 seems a minor dilemma to those discussed before ;)
(was he world champ once or twice? Is he still a record holder? Was his record 5.60 or 5.61?)
OffLine Alan Little
  2019-02-12 12:25:51    
Only one competitor (per gender) FROM JAPAN can qualitfy from the WCH, because one is already qualified by the Host Country slot.

Don't know how that is decided though. Does the Japanese governing body get to nominate whoever it wants? Do they do it before or after the WCH?
OffLine Kuba Główka
  2019-02-12 12:29:20    
Japan as a Olympic Games host in 2020 is a special country: they can qualify only one athlete in any of the qualifications events. Second one representing Japan will be chosen by the Japan federation (following their internal rules).
All other countries can qualify up to 2 athletes - on any event that is planned.

My bet is that: if Speed World Champion is not qualified to Olympic Games (through combination events) she/he has high chances to be chosen by Tripartite Commission. IOC has stated previously that they want to have best climbers (World Champions in different disciplines) present in Tokyo.
OffLine Jon Megent
  2019-02-12 14:40:53    
"Once in the Top-8 final, mathematically the chances for the bronze is like 10 %."

These odds probably assume every outcome is equally likely. My guess is that is not so, and the real chance for a speed specialist to medal is less than 10%.
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-12 17:13:31    
I do not think any Speed specialist will qualify to Tokyo but I think the best one will get the tripartite.

Just check the results from Buenos Aires and you will see that 1*20*20 could make it to the Top -8 and then 1*8*8 could mean bronze.
OffLine Tuf La
  2019-02-13 09:19:30    
It seems like Danyil lost 2 cm during my reading of this beautiful piece of journalism..
OnLine JLH
  2019-02-13 16:01:07    
... and from favourite for gold ("Boldyrev is going for Tokyo - could get gold"), in just two days he lost his chances even to qualify to Tokio ("I do not think any Speed specialist will qualify to Tokyo").
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-13 17:15:04    
Yes in theory he ”could get gold” and I think his best chance is to get the tripartite place.
OnLine Simon Maillard
  2019-02-13 19:12:41    
In theory I could get gold too
OnLine Jens Larssen
  2019-02-13 19:32:54    
1. Boldyrev gets the Tripartite.
2. In the qualification he is 1 * 20 * 20 and gets to the Top-8.
3. In the finals he is super lucky in the bouldering and use his height to get one top quickly. The other two boulders turn too hard and just few guys do them. Super lucky = 4
4. 1 * 4 * 8 could mean a gold although I guess any betting company would today give like 5 000 to 1 Euro.
Please explain how you in theory could get the gold in Tokyo in theory :)
OffLine Reino "Nicki" Horak
  2019-02-15 21:22:04    
Fun and interesting thoughts. Nice work Jens