Men's semis winner wins WC final - 2 weeks in a row

So during the last 23 male World Cups the semi winner has won two times out of 23. It is the same in soccer, in almost two third of the cases the team who starts the penalty kicks win.

Jens, 1.  Climbing is not soccer.  Soccer is a team sport, where the fate of your nation rides on you.  In climbing you are on your own.  Tiger Woods e.g. said he felt vastly more pressure during the Ryder Cup, representing his country, than in any major tournament.  (And he also has done very poorly in the Ryder Cup.)  btw, the figures for World Cup penalty kicks are 60%, not 'almost two thirds'.   2.  In climbing, the playing field differs, from boulder to boulder and from round to round.  That is why winning the semis does not mean you are the best climber out there, or the heavy favorite to win finals.  It simply means you did best on that set of boulders (where 'best' can mean one attempt on a bonus, i.e. a minuscule difference).    3.  Sean McColl says semis is the hardest part, because you're competing against 19 other climbers, for just six spots.  His clear implication is that once you're in finals, it's a whole new ball game. 4.  You want to make a statistical argument -- "the semi winner has won two times out of 23" -- but you have not run the statistics to make your case.  Instead of repeating your dogma -- and that's what it is until you present more real proof -- why not do the actual work of building evidence?  5.  I seem to recall that if you go back further than the last 23 WC events, the percentages go up quite a bit.  If so, you are cherry picking the data. I've told you before I think your idea has some merit.  I wish you would go about proving your case, instead of saying the same thing ad nauseum, blaring out the news on 8a when it goes your way, but staying quiet when results don't support you.